NON-STATE OF THE UNION

Last night was President Obama's first speech as President to the United States Congress.  Everyone knew it was going to be a masterful speech and a chance to see Candidate Obama and his firery rhetoric in all it's Capitol and Congressional glory.  President Obama did not disappoint in his that regard.

And I too want better healthcare, better education, a better economy, a better America.  And after listening to all these priorities, and with multi-trillion dollar spending cuts (over a decade), there was one statement that was never said in the rostrum of Congress, but is perfectly clear.  Everyone's taxes are going UP.

I have prepared enough budgets in my life without being a financial wizard to tell you that to do all that we want to do, spending cuts will not be enough.  What we will need is new sources of revenue.  And how does the United States government obtain new sources of revenue?  Economics 101, governments increase revenue by increasing taxes.

 Not just a rise in taxes on the richest 2% of American's that make over $250,000, that won't do it.  Ending the war in Iraq will not be enough "savings" either.  American's don't want to cut the defense budget and American's want their entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare).  The question is, when will President Obama take this on?  He would have to get re-elected and do it in his second term.  If he even mentions higher taxes he will be a 1 term president in 2012.  But make no mistake about it, the "era of responsibility" is about to mean the beginning of higher taxes.  

And poor Wall Street took it on the chin last night.  The financial industry will never return to it's golden days.  The last time Wall Street got beat up was in the 80's, but the destruction to the overall economy was not nearly as bad as it is this time.  Bankers will be making reasonable salaries with reasonable bonuses now.  Which begs the question, if so many smart young American's migrated to Wall Street for easy money, where will they go now that Wall Street is no longer easy or fast money, but just a respectable career with respectable pay?

And my #1 question of the evening....what was former Presiddent George Bush thinking and saying watching President Obama's speech to Congress last night?

UPDATE:  The New York Times David Leonhardt has an excellent article articulating my not so original point:  http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/25/business/economy/25leonhardt.html?hp

UPDATE #2:  http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/us/politics/16taxday.html?scp=1&sq=tea%20party&st=cse

ME & OSCAR

I have my own personal history with Oscar and the Academy Awards.  I always watched the Oscars when I was a kid and I always loved it.  Every year it reinforced my desire to live in Los Angeles and work in the entertainment industry.

I will never forget the first time I ever saw an Oscar up close.  It was my first day working at Universal Studios and I went to lunch at the commissary.  There, as you walked into the commissary, was Universal Studios Wall of Oscars.  In addition to the producer(s) who win Best Picture, the studio who made Best Picture that year also gets an Oscar.  Warner Bros. uses Oscars in its museum on the studio lot.  But at Universal, it was pretty impressive going to lunch and seeing a display case holding over 30 Oscars for all of Universal's wins.

The first time I ever saw an Academy Award up close was at Chris Mcquarrie's loft in downtown Miami.  I was dating a screenwriter at the time, and he was friends' with Chris.  One evening when we were over there early for movie night, we asked to see it.  Chris showed it to us, but neither my boyfriend at the time, nor myself, would touch it.  Hollywood is notoriously superstitious, and the legend goes, if you touched an Oscar and it wasn't yours, you were cursed and would never receive your own Oscar.  Stephen Spielberg said in interviews in 1994 (when he won for Schindler's List) that the first time he ever touched an Oscar was when it was his for Best Director.  It was definitely cool to see one up close.

However, in the 20 plus year's that I have watched the Academy Awards, this year was the best Academy Awards show I have ever seen.  And it wasn't the actors, dresses, outfits, interviews, the host, the revamped set, gaffes, or anything like that....this year was the year of my 2 favorite acceptance speeches.  Dustin Lance Black gave the most powerful acceptance speech I have ever seen given at the Academy Awards.  Not only was it personal and moving, it's the only Academy Awards speech I know that will literally save lives:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mv35SN3ctU

Sean Penn's acceptance speech for his second win for Best Actor was a great political statement, not as powerful as Lance's, but Mr Penn definitely got more attention because, well, he's Sean Penn:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dnM8v9aaR0

This year was also special because I do know Lance, and also another nominee who didn't win this year for Film Editing, Elliot Graham.  Elliot got run over by the Slumdog winners train, but his editting job intercutting the real life 70's footage realistically into MILK was incredible work all on it's own.  Elliot is in his early 30's and already with 1 AA nomination.  An astonishing achievement for a young film editor even if you do not win.

It is not every day that I personally know 2 people nominated for Academy Awards, and even rare to know a winner.  But that's what makes Hollywood the Cool Town for Show Business.

"OUT INTO THE ARMS OF AMERICA"

We are still in the first 100 days of the new Obama Administration.  Here's my early scorecard:

1.  What I like is that with Air Force One, all of the continental U.S. is day trip with the president flying to a city in the U.S., speaking or in most cases so far, bill signings, and then Obama is still back in Washington at night to be with his family.  This serves both personal and political goals.  So far, Obama has traveled to Illinois, Florida, Arizona, and Colorado to sign the economic stimulus bill, the housing recovery bill, and have town hall style meetings.  Obama is rewarding red states turned blue in the last election and the administration definitely has it's eye on re-election in 2012.  But despite the political calculus, Obama's entire re-election completely depends on the state of the economy in 2011.  What I like even more is the message this is sending out to the American people.  It says this President is a man who stays OUT of Washington.  Unlike his predecessor, Obama is spending more time out in the country and less time holed up in White House ("the bubble").  Again, this serves a higher political god, but it's a smart move for the new president.

The media has been giving Obama a pass for quite sometime now.  I feel like the New York Times is so pro-Obama, that I'm not getting any fair & balanced reporting.  I'm not reading a lot of criticisms and viewpoints on the Republican side.  Also, MSNBC has become the FOX NEWS of the Obama Administration.  Good for MSNBC's ratings, but bad for objective journalism.  Criticism has started slowly in the New York Times, but not quickly enough.  Also, Obama has used the media beautifully for his purposes.  He is a big draw and already he's had his first Presidential news conference and will address Congress next Tuesday night in primetime.  

Media:  D

Obama Using Media To His Advantage:  A+

2.  The economic stimulus package and the housing recovery packages were both disasters. The economic stimulus package was not big enough (as scary as it sounds, it should have been $2-3 trillion dollars), and the housing recovery package is a bailout and only barely stems the loss in foreclosures.  The economic stimulus package is all about visuals.  If Americans see that their schools are being improved, their roads getting better, basically if you drive around and see construction and see people at work, you think that things are getting better.   But again, much more money should have been spent.  I think this is going to get a lot worse before it starts getting any better.  The Japanese had 8 stimulus packages and none of them worked because they were not big enough.  I think there's a real risk in going back to Congress for ANOTHER stimulus package, which they will have to do.  Democrats will spend a lot of time explaining why it didn't work the first time, and the Republicans will be all over them with gains in the 2010 congressional elections when we need another stimulus package, since almost every Republican voted against it the first time.

The Housing Recovery bill was terrible frankly.  First of all, why should we bail these people out?  Can I stop paying my mortgage and the government will give me money?  Moral hazard is another way of saying, "reward the stupid".  Second, while I appreciate the need to stop home foreclosures, the housing bill does not do what it needs to do, which is make people want to buy houses again.  The government should have lowered interest rates for everyone, sell better mortgage insurance for everyone who qualifies, and BOOM - housing recovery!  If you had good credit and could get a home at a 3% interest rate, you definitely would.  And think of the tax free stimulus all that home buying would spur in home improvements, purchasing new furniture, moving costs......you have your economic recovery right there by a government mandate to lower mortgage rates and maybe save the U.S. financial system in the process, and do it all without using tax payer money for a bailout.  The banking system needs to be nationalized to weed out the bad banks, spin off the good banks from the bad banks, and save our financial system.  And don't even get me started on why the governemnt thinks the answer to our debt problem is take on more debt? WTF?!?!?

Before anyone thinks this all doom & gloom, it isn't.  We're still the #1 market in the world and likely to stay that way for decades into the future, but we've got some big problems to take on and we're still not and these 2 bills are band aids on a decapitation.

Grade: F

3.  When it comes to political cabinet appointees, I am a bit shocked by the fact that the cabinet is still not fully in place.  Lingering tax issues, always stun me, since it's such a stupid thing to do as a politician.  As a political figure dealing with tax policy, you have to know that you need to hire a maid from an agency that has done a background check and confirmed citizenship rather than give cash some maid your friend recommended.  I get it, no one likes to pay a fortune to a maid to clean your house.  But I mean, come on, how many political figures have tripped up on this one?  Actually paying a legal maid should now be taught in Politics 101 at the undergrad level.

But Commerce and Health & Human Services are still left unfilled.

For me, the jury is still out on Tim Geithner.  So far, he has underwhelmed Wall Street, and the Administration is carefully rolling out Bernake, but the Fed is out of weapons to fight with.  So that leaves Geithner to do all the heavy lifting.  Wall Street is very much a creature of the day, or of the moment, whereas Treasury policy HAS to take the long term view on the U.S. and world economy.  Clinton has done well so far in Asia.

Grade:  D

4.  Obama's foreign policy has been smart, but only signals so far.  Obama has a vast and seasoned arsenal of high profile political figures out in the world.  With a special envoy for the Middle East, Vice President Joe Biden traveling to Europe to sell the "more for more" policy, Attorney General Eric Holder traveling to Guantanamo to shut it down, Clinton touring Asia, a day trip to Canada to address trade, Japan as the first presidential visit, and an upcoming European trip to a the NATO Summit, Obama has moved very swiftly all over the world utilizing the talents of some very smart political superstars to push a new American foreign policy.  Only 2 dings so far:  the first - where will Obama speak in an Islamic country?  If it was Bush, he might have spoken in Saudi Arabia (if he could).  But where will Obama give a speech on Muslim relations?  Could it be the second biggest Muslim country and former Obama country - Indonesia and not in the Middle East at all?  And second - 17,000 more troops in Afganistan with still no draw down in Iraq?  He's only gotten more war-like than Bush, not less.

Grade:  C-

I hate to say it, but based on the current economic trajectory, I would say Obama is well on his way to being a 1 term president.  (Also, I cannot take credit for being this smart, I blatently stole some of these ideas from my friend Tom based on a conversation we had.  I won't tell you which ones, but he will.  Hint - his are all the great ideas, mine are all the good ideas).

3D CELLPHONE MAPS, TARGETED ADVERTISING & MOBILE SHOPPING

With the advent of the smartphone, cell phones have evolved into minicomputers. Given their portability, ease of use and ubiquity, cell phones are now an intricate and irreplaceable part of a modern 21st century digital lifestyle. I knew before I got my first cell phone that once you get one, it's with you for the rest of your life. (It's a long journey, so be careful how much "digital luggage" you take with you).

Now there are alot of conversations going on about GPS, location based mapping, privacy and advertising. If a company can track (via your cell phone) where you have been, there is no reason it cannot tell you where else to go. For instance, if you are visiting a lot of car dealerships, your phone will know you are car shopping and can send you to dealerships to complete your vehicle purchase. Personally, I like the idea of passive advertising and 3D GPS mapping. But there are some inherit problems.

First of all, data roaming is too expensive overseas. My IPhone is all but useless in other countries or foreign cities, when I REALLY need maps. Data roaming is so expensive, that I use my phone just for texting and that's it unless I am in a WiFi Hotspot. But wouldn't it be great to come out of an underground stop at street level anywhere in the world, hold up your cell phone, have it display a 3D overlay map and offer directions? In Japan, cell phones already use the cell phone camera to display 3D maps based on your location and move with you in 3D, in real time. My cell phone would already know that I'm a Taco Bell fan, but I would never find one on my own in London. The 3D maps with advertising could offer directions to the nearest Taco Bell, or retail store or offer directions to the latest cinema with movies times and ticket prices. All of these location based targeted advertising would be very useful. Like me, most people I don't mind advertising, as long as it's targeted advertising towards them specifically, and my cell phone would already "know" me. (It was like when Amazon found out I was gay with their purchasing "suggestions").

Google recently offered a program called Latitudes, that allows you track your friends and family. There are similiar programs and more on the way such as Loopt. As a researcher, I know that the next frontier ($$$) in digital advertising will not come from the radio, newspapers, or the internet. After television, the second biggest ad market will be mobile cell phone location based advertising.

Which brings up another good point, which is instant shopping. I already use my cell phone for mobile banking to check my checking/savings accounts and credit card balances, all by "dialing" into both banks. I can also purchase music via my phone. I want to be able to use my cell phone to make purchases instantly, eliminating the need for cash, credit cards, and wallets all together. The technology is there, we just need some better security and we're all set.

UPDATE: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/business/media/11target.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-02/at-t-verizon-said-to-target-visa-mastercard-with-smartphones.html

NOT SCARED ENOUGH

At this point in my life, at this moment in my career, I feel very lucky just to be employed.  My entertainment career started at Disney as a temp for about a year in Publicity.  Then I went to work at Nielsen Media Research.  I started as a receptionist and was promoted to Analyst and then Senior Analyst.  I left Nielsen for MCA/Universal working in their TV Research division as a Research Analyst. We handled research for network, syndication, cable, focus groups, basically all things TV Research for MCA/Universal.  When Seagram's purchased Universal from Matsushita, 1000 of the 5000 TV employees were fired, including 2 in my department.  We thought we would be immune, but 2 people were let go on what was affectionately called "Black Monday" at Universal.  2 months later I left Universal for New World TV, which was an independently owned syndicator about to launch a new entertainment magazine strip called Access Hollywood.  There were some other 1 hours, but AH was the lead show.  6 months after I started there, FOX acquired New World (exclusively for their O&O station group, which became part of FOX's O&O now - including the #10 DMA, Atlanta).  I knew we would all be fired.  So, just like when I heard about Seagram's acquisition of MCA, I started looking before the ax could fall on me.

Fortunately, it never did. I was soon hired as an Senior Research Analyst at Warner Bros. International Television, where I have been happily for the last 12 (going on 13) years.  There I survived the Turner merger (more firings), the AOL merger (even more firings), and usually a yearly staff restructing (1 or 2 people fired).  Warner Bros. has promoted to me to Research Manager, and later Research Director.  Warner Bros. has moved me from LA to London and back to LA and now to Miami.  

I have always worked hard in my job.  My motto is make yourself invaluable and never give a company a reason to replace you (not that that always works, it just seems to have worked out that way for me).  Although I am fortunate to have some savings, very good credit, no credit card debt, and a decimated 401K, I also have a mortgage, maintenance payments and student loans.  Without my job and in this environment, I would quickly find myself in a very uncomfortable position. 

I have been through 2 recessions before, and I remember interviewing my grandmother for a high school project on the Great Depression and not even conceiving that anything like that would happen in my lifetime.  (I was also 15).  And yet, here we are right in the middle of The Next Great Depression.  Make no mistake about it, people around the world are seriously hurting and it is going to take a long time to come out of this.  And with this recession, I personally know 5 people who have been fired.  I have known 1 or 2, but 5?  That's a lot of people in my opinion.  The stories both break my heart and make me thankful for my job.  

And what disheartens me is everywhere I look, the people who have jobs and are employed do not seem to be working any harder.  For instance, at the 2nd worse airport in the United States (MIA), there was 1 international flight that arrived.  1 airplane full of luggage to get to 1 baggage carousel.  Besides the 6 baggagge attendants standing around the carousel doing nothing other than talking to each other on the job, it took over a half hour for the bags to get to carousel and to the passengers.  I understand if there are several flights all arriving at once, but I have been travelling enough to know that when immigration beats your luggage arrival, something is very wrong with the baggage personnel.  And it's not just the airport, I walk into malls and stores and I do not notice any additional customer engagement.  Restaurants, bars, no one seems to be stepping up their game.  What I would expect to see is a sharp refocusing on customer service.  My hope is that the worse is behind us and that we will slowly start going up.  

I feel bad for Wall Street bankers.  Their golden age is over and the finance industry might not get another golden age for a decade or more.  And a decade is a long time in a career.   I do not want any more of my friends and collegues to lose their jobs.  And who's to say if this is all over?  If the financial situation does not improve in the next 6 months, there could be more job losses.  

THEY'RE GONNA NEED TO REPAINT THAT ROOF

And that picture pretty much sums up the European national feeling about former U.S. President George W. Bush.  I just returned from a great ski vacation in Austria.  While I was very much looking forward to skiing, seeing my friends, and going to Austria (I had never been before, so it's always exciting to go to a new country), there was something else I was curious to hear about.....the European take on Obama.

My German friends live all over Europe (Zurich, Vienna, and Munich).  I met most of them last September at Octoberfest.  (Let's just say that Octoberfest isn't exactly the best time to remember anything about anyone).  But this trip I found out these guys are quite accomplished.  Georg has his PhD in Business with an emphasis on finance and owns his own clothing company and textile business.  Mario works in computer programming and IT for BMW.  Ivo is a journalist working for a newspaper in Zurich.  Thomas is an architect with a doctorate to go along with his successful career.  Frederico works in the European patent office.  (I didn't ask what Karl does).  Obviously an intelligent, well educated group of Germans.  So what did they think?  I decided to not even bring it up and see what their opinions were.

I was in Georg's car not more than 5 minutes and he asked me what I thought about Obama.  He wasn't expecting my response, "Well, he really hasn't done anything yet, so I have nothing to base an opinion on."  (The stimulus package had not yet passed).  But I was more interested in his take on Obama.  After talking with Georg and my other friends over the weekend, let's just say that the Europeans are overjoyed with Obama.  They hated Bush so much, and they were serious about how much they did not like him.  (And I felt it every time I went over there for a vacation in the last 8 years.  Fortunately, I didn't vote for Bush either time, but that provided little cover).  Needless to say, the Europeans are expecting great things from Obama.  

While I was over there, Vice President Joe Biden was in Munich touting the new "more for more" U.S./European policy.  The U.S. will be asking a lot of Europe.  In return for new negotiations with Russia and Iran, serious talk on climate change, and the closing of Guantanamo, the Europeans will be expected to share in the heavy lifting, including sending more NATO troops to Afganistan and taking Guantanamo prisioners.  So let's see how long the bloom is on the rose for.

UPDATE April 2009: The "More for More" strategy did not work out. Europe gave only a tepid response and a meager troop count for Afghanistan.

CHRISTIAN BALE FBOMB RELEASE EXPLAINED

In the 1980's Steven Spielberg had a particular talent for finding young, unknown actors and launching their careers in major feature films.  Two prominent early examples were Henry Thomas and Drew Barrymore in E.T.  Child actor Christian Bale was another great Spielberg find for Empire of the Sun.  At the time, most of young actors, after brilliant performances in $100 million plus films, went the way of Henry Thomas' career - which is to say nowhere.  (After a much publicized bout with alcohol & drugs, Drew Barrymore went onto a very successful movie & producing career).

Christian Bale's rise as the first action star of the 21st century was surprising to me.  After a number of very good acting roles in independent films, Mr. Bale's career really took off as a major movie star after he was cast as Bruce Wayne in Batman Begins.  With The Dark Knight released in Summer 2008, Bale had arrived as a major action movie star.  Not only is he the new Batman, now he is also the new action hero John Connor in Summer 2009's Terminator Salvation.

All of which makes the release last week of his on set blow up tape to media all the more baffling.  I have NO inside information on this, but I find it strange that a tape made in July 2008 during filming should show up in February 2009 - 2 months before the release of the movie.  Why was it released now?  It wasn't good publicity for the film.  WB & Sony will launch the theatrical campaign in March to coincide with the NCAA's March Madness to target the key male audience.  February's tape release was too early.  Also, both studios must be angling for a hard PG-13 rating to attract the widest possible audience, so this explictive laden tape would not help with the rating or marketing campaign.

My guess, which I have not seen a report anywhere in the media on, is that his talent representative's were asking for a major pay raise to reprise his role in Terminator 4.  The producers balked, released the tape to counter the negotiations and get his asking price down to what the studio thinks is a reasonable level.  Obviously his agents have seen the film and know it is going to be a major money maker.  This release only serves to embarrass Christian Bale, and reinforce a negative image campaign that began by his own family asking him for money and him flatly turning them down.  That led to his own mother and sister having him arrested and brought in for questioning by the London police (he was released in 4 hours and no charges were filed).  The release of the tape only serves as leverage.