We are still in the first 100 days of the new Obama Administration. Here's my early scorecard:
1. What I like is that with Air Force One, all of the continental U.S. is day trip with the president flying to a city in the U.S., speaking or in most cases so far, bill signings, and then Obama is still back in Washington at night to be with his family. This serves both personal and political goals. So far, Obama has traveled to Illinois, Florida, Arizona, and Colorado to sign the economic stimulus bill, the housing recovery bill, and have town hall style meetings. Obama is rewarding red states turned blue in the last election and the administration definitely has it's eye on re-election in 2012. But despite the political calculus, Obama's entire re-election completely depends on the state of the economy in 2011. What I like even more is the message this is sending out to the American people. It says this President is a man who stays OUT of Washington. Unlike his predecessor, Obama is spending more time out in the country and less time holed up in White House ("the bubble"). Again, this serves a higher political god, but it's a smart move for the new president.
The media has been giving Obama a pass for quite sometime now. I feel like the New York Times is so pro-Obama, that I'm not getting any fair & balanced reporting. I'm not reading a lot of criticisms and viewpoints on the Republican side. Also, MSNBC has become the FOX NEWS of the Obama Administration. Good for MSNBC's ratings, but bad for objective journalism. Criticism has started slowly in the New York Times, but not quickly enough. Also, Obama has used the media beautifully for his purposes. He is a big draw and already he's had his first Presidential news conference and will address Congress next Tuesday night in primetime.
Media: D
Obama Using Media To His Advantage: A+
2. The economic stimulus package and the housing recovery packages were both disasters. The economic stimulus package was not big enough (as scary as it sounds, it should have been $2-3 trillion dollars), and the housing recovery package is a bailout and only barely stems the loss in foreclosures. The economic stimulus package is all about visuals. If Americans see that their schools are being improved, their roads getting better, basically if you drive around and see construction and see people at work, you think that things are getting better. But again, much more money should have been spent. I think this is going to get a lot worse before it starts getting any better. The Japanese had 8 stimulus packages and none of them worked because they were not big enough. I think there's a real risk in going back to Congress for ANOTHER stimulus package, which they will have to do. Democrats will spend a lot of time explaining why it didn't work the first time, and the Republicans will be all over them with gains in the 2010 congressional elections when we need another stimulus package, since almost every Republican voted against it the first time.
The Housing Recovery bill was terrible frankly. First of all, why should we bail these people out? Can I stop paying my mortgage and the government will give me money? Moral hazard is another way of saying, "reward the stupid". Second, while I appreciate the need to stop home foreclosures, the housing bill does not do what it needs to do, which is make people want to buy houses again. The government should have lowered interest rates for everyone, sell better mortgage insurance for everyone who qualifies, and BOOM - housing recovery! If you had good credit and could get a home at a 3% interest rate, you definitely would. And think of the tax free stimulus all that home buying would spur in home improvements, purchasing new furniture, moving costs......you have your economic recovery right there by a government mandate to lower mortgage rates and maybe save the U.S. financial system in the process, and do it all without using tax payer money for a bailout. The banking system needs to be nationalized to weed out the bad banks, spin off the good banks from the bad banks, and save our financial system. And don't even get me started on why the governemnt thinks the answer to our debt problem is take on more debt? WTF?!?!?
Before anyone thinks this all doom & gloom, it isn't. We're still the #1 market in the world and likely to stay that way for decades into the future, but we've got some big problems to take on and we're still not and these 2 bills are band aids on a decapitation.
Grade: F
3. When it comes to political cabinet appointees, I am a bit shocked by the fact that the cabinet is still not fully in place. Lingering tax issues, always stun me, since it's such a stupid thing to do as a politician. As a political figure dealing with tax policy, you have to know that you need to hire a maid from an agency that has done a background check and confirmed citizenship rather than give cash some maid your friend recommended. I get it, no one likes to pay a fortune to a maid to clean your house. But I mean, come on, how many political figures have tripped up on this one? Actually paying a legal maid should now be taught in Politics 101 at the undergrad level.
But Commerce and Health & Human Services are still left unfilled.
For me, the jury is still out on Tim Geithner. So far, he has underwhelmed Wall Street, and the Administration is carefully rolling out Bernake, but the Fed is out of weapons to fight with. So that leaves Geithner to do all the heavy lifting. Wall Street is very much a creature of the day, or of the moment, whereas Treasury policy HAS to take the long term view on the U.S. and world economy. Clinton has done well so far in Asia.
Grade: D
4. Obama's foreign policy has been smart, but only signals so far. Obama has a vast and seasoned arsenal of high profile political figures out in the world. With a special envoy for the Middle East, Vice President Joe Biden traveling to Europe to sell the "more for more" policy, Attorney General Eric Holder traveling to Guantanamo to shut it down, Clinton touring Asia, a day trip to Canada to address trade, Japan as the first presidential visit, and an upcoming European trip to a the NATO Summit, Obama has moved very swiftly all over the world utilizing the talents of some very smart political superstars to push a new American foreign policy. Only 2 dings so far: the first - where will Obama speak in an Islamic country? If it was Bush, he might have spoken in Saudi Arabia (if he could). But where will Obama give a speech on Muslim relations? Could it be the second biggest Muslim country and former Obama country - Indonesia and not in the Middle East at all? And second - 17,000 more troops in Afganistan with still no draw down in Iraq? He's only gotten more war-like than Bush, not less.
Grade: C-
I hate to say it, but based on the current economic trajectory, I would say Obama is well on his way to being a 1 term president. (Also, I cannot take credit for being this smart, I blatently stole some of these ideas from my friend Tom based on a conversation we had. I won't tell you which ones, but he will. Hint - his are all the great ideas, mine are all the good ideas).
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