Even though it's November, I'm already willing to make a prediction for 2010. 2010 will be the year that most, if not all free content goes behind the pay wall. Yesterday, Rupert Murdoch threatened to move all of his newspaper sites, worldwide behind the pay wall. Most of Murdoch's newspaper publications are already paid, such as the Wall Street Journal. And it's no coincidence that the 3 paid newspaper sites (Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and The Economist) audiences are all what I like to call "pay insensitive" - or rich. However, search engine news aggregators frequently pick up on newspaper sites popular articles and publish them on their sites (such as Google News) for free.
The Pay Wall is fraught with complications. A newspaper sites current audience is wholly dependent on delivering a certain number of eyeballs to the site. By going behind the pay wall, and not allowing search engines not to aggregate your site, you severely reduce your online traffic, decreasing ad revenue, while creating a competitive advantage for an an audience exodus to your competitive newspaper sites. Eliminate your online traffic and you have to make a calculated (although completely unknown) gamble that the number of pay subscribers you pick up to your site is greater than or offsets the loss of your free online ad revenue. My prediction is that in 2010, newspaper sites will adopt a blended subscription model - some previews and free content, with either a pay per article fee (25 cents) or a full subscription for a monthly fee.
And newspapers aren't the only ones going behind the pay wall. The second most popular video site in the U.S. after You Tube, Hulu will also adapt a blended subscription model. Hulu will follow the newspapers lead with some free content such as select clips, trailers and other promotional content, a pay per episode fee of $1.99 (like ITunes), and/or a full subscription fee of $30 monthly for a buffet style "all you can eat - or in this case, watch." Viewers will either have to watch a full ad load to watch a free episode (12 minutes of commercials for a 1 hour show, just like on TV - this is double the current ad load for a 1 hour show, which is about 6 minutes).
And the leader of getting an audience to pay for digital content - ITunes will adopt a $30 a month subscription fee for all you can watch TV & movies on its site.
THE "FREE BLACK HOLE"
In an effort to avoid becoming the music, radio, and after witnessing the collapse this year of the newspaper business, the entertainment industry is going to stop with "Free" everything. I work in the entertainment business. I don't work for free, and neither do the actors, writers, directors, and producers who create the content. Just like getting a drink at a bar, if you want to watch the movie or TV show, you're going to have to pay for it.
Watch this blog posting for an UPDATE! in 2010 to see if I'm correct.
UPDATE: December 2009 - Variety Online has gone behind the pay wall.
UPDATE: January 2010 - The New York Times goes behind the pay wall in early 2011.
UPDATE: February 2010 - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/business/media/03brill.html?hpw
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