The biggest news coming out of the Consumer Electronics Show last week in Las Vegas was the over hyped arrival of 3D TV. With the recent success of the film Avatar (an outlier in terms of 3D adoption), cable networks and OEM's are racing to bring 3D TV sets and channels to the market. This new revolution/evolution in electronics will largely fail. I predict that 3D TV will remain largely the domain of techno-geeks with widespread consumer adoption at least 10+ years away. Why?
1. Lack of content. Not every program should be seen or made in 3D. Certain sporting events would make for great 3D TV experience (soccer, football & basketball) while others would not (golf and baseball). There's not enough content made or being made in 3D to justify any demand. News programs, comedies, food shows, local news, and most current and past films are all not suited for 3D. Other low revenue content such as documentaries cannot justify the cost premium to shoot in 3D.
2. The glasses. It's one thing to go to a darkened movie cinema, see a 3D movie and drop off the glasses on the way out of the cinema. It's quite another to expect me to sit in my living room looking like an idiot with these glasses on while walking around my house.
3. New TV sets. People just spent thousands of dollars (anywhere for $1,000 to $4,000) to buy a new TV set for the digital conversion. Consumers want at least 5+ years out of their current TV sets before considering another large scale purchase like a 3D TV.
4. More cable channels. TV providers (cable, satellite and telcos) are not simply going to give consumers access to 3D cable channels for free. Consumers are going to have to pay for them. With the broadcast networks demanding a retransmission fee already, cable bills are going up sharply. With cable bills likely to approach $150 (cable + internet) in the next 2 years, don't expect consumers to pony up another $5 per month for ESPN 3D or Discovery 3D. Cable companies are in enough trouble with consumers increasingly wondering why they're paying $150 for 200 channels when most viewers watch under 10 channels. Also, sports are a great place to start with 3D programming, but conspicuously absent from the cable networks lining up a 3D channel are currently the channels with the most 3D content - movie channels. Notice how HBO, Cinemax and Showtime didn't announce a 3D movie channel? And the only channels currently able to run 12 (not 24 hours) of 3D content are movie channels.
From where I'm sitting, 3D looks like a technology in search of the market, instead of the other way around. TV manufacturer's and cable networks appear to be supplying a consumer need that has not as of yet been defined as a "need" by consumers. Talk to me in 2020 and the market may have shifted enough to justify 3D TV, but for the medium term, I don't see it happening.
UPDATE: This past weekend (end of February 2010), I went to the Sony Style Store and actually watched 3DTV. None of my opinions above have changed. It is still incredibly cool for certain genres (animated and space films), but the glasses are really annoying. As soon as they make 3DTV's where you don't need glasses, then you've got a saleable product.
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